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The DDK Group

Our Insights

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Second Quarter 2020 Outlook

The COVID-19 epidemic has affected all of us in ways we never imagined. It is remarkable how much the equity markets have moved in the course of a month’s time, adding to the anxiety felt by all. We went from an all-time high in stocks on February 19 supported by relatively strong and improving economic data, to a definite recession as the global economy has been brought to a near crawl.

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First Quarter 2020 Outlook

Happy New Decade! We first should celebrate a very good decade for equity investors, with the S&P 500 rising 13.6% per year, better than the market’s long-run average of 10.2%. Undoubtedly the equity markets benefited from easy monetary policy, with the Fed injecting large amounts of liquidity into the markets as well keeping short term rates low.

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Fourth Quarter 2019 Outlook

The “trade war“ drags on with no real end in sight and it is having real effects on the U.S. economy. The tailwinds of growth from the 2018 tax cuts have been muted by the tariffs and threats of tariffs and we are seeing negative impacts to the manufacturing sector. Although it is usually policy and not politics that moves the markets, Trump’s impeachment inquiry is at least a major distraction in resolving our conflict with China. The Fed is keenly aware how these threats could lead to recession.

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Third Quarter 2019 Outlook

The market’s recovery from the fourth quarter continued into May until renewed trade tensions and fears of slower growth sparked a decline of almost 7%. Despite the relatively strong U.S. economy with notable wage growth and low unemployment, inflation remains very low and the yield curve has flattened dramatically.

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First Quarter 2019 Outlook

Slowing global growth, the U.S./China trade war, and Federal Reserve policy on both rates and reduction in its balance sheet, were the major culprits in driving the risk markets lower in 2018.

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